Lauren Graham just announced she's publishing a memoir, and we can only hope it'll address some of these 'Gilmore Girls' rumors, like her beef with Scott Patterson. Summary: Ellen Embrey is 66 years old and was born on 06/18/1954. Ellen Embrey lives in Springfield, VA; previous cities include Alexandria VA and Bumpass VA. In the past, Ellen has also been known as Ellen P Embrey, Ellen J Patterson and Ellen Embrye. NOTICE: Under Florida law, email addresses are public record. If you do not want your email addresses released in response to a public records request, do not send electronic mail to this entity. Instead, contact this office by phone or in writing. Ellen (TV Series 1994–1998) cast and crew credits, including actors, actresses, directors, writers and more. Scott Patterson in California 241 people named Scott Patterson found in Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose and 13 other cities. Click a location below to find Scott more easily. Scott Patterson (Luke on Gilmore Girls) recently gave an interview to tv.com about his upcoming new show The Event. He also talked about Lauren and his work on Gilmore Girls : Going back to your Gilmore Girls days, what was it like to be on a show for seven years? I mean, in Hollywood, to have a job for seven minutes is good. Ellen Patterson, general counsel of Wells Fargo. Courtesy photo TD Bank Group’s Ellen Patterson, named Friday as Wells Fargo & Co.’s next general counsel, will join the bank on March 23 in an ... The Records of this office show: That prior to October 31, 1902, applications were received by the Commission to the Five Civilized Tribes for the enrollment as citizens by intermarriage of the Cherokee Nation of the following named persons whose names appear upon the partial roll of Cherokee citizens, approved by the Secretary of the Interior, opposite the numbers following their respective name. Looking for Scott Patterson in Pennsylvania? We found Scott's current address in PA, phone numbers, emails, background check reports, social profiles and more. Ellen Patterson was born circa 1853, at birth place, Utah, to Alex Patterson and Mary Patterson. Ellen had 11 siblings: ... Ellen Scott Paterson (born Robertson) was born on month day 1814, at birth place. Ellen married Bruce Paterson on month day 1835, at age 20 at marriage place.
2005 saw Dave Rubin's blog, "Rubinville", really take off. Dave continues fat shaming people; both famous (Kirstie Alley, Star Jones, Andy Milonakis, Anna Nichole Smith) and non-famous. (It's funny because Dave recently tweeted out to Kirstie Alley for her to do his show.) Dave voted for Republican Michael Bloomberg in the 2005 NYC Mayoral race. Some of Dave's favorite shows include The View, Tony Danza, and any program on CNN or Fox News. Dave wishes death to Jeff Zucker for not picking up a failed sketch show of his and continues to believe that Tom Hanks stole his material and used it on The Tonight Show. (Dave previously mentioned this in his blog; 2003/4.) Dave mocks Adam Carolla and Mike Rowe; he is now friendly with both. In the beginning of 2005, Dave promises to no longer stalk Ellen but he goes back on that promise. Except this time, Dave shares his daily e-mails to Ellen. Lastly, Dave continues to use slurs against Asian people, Arabic people, little people, and well, anyone he doesn't like. 2005 Rubinville 01/09/2005
Palestian elections are today and most people are expecting Abu Mazen to win by a solid margin. If any Palestians are reading this and haven't voted yet, please use your vote to write-in Arab-American actor Tony Shaloub. People think to think his show 'Monk' is funny, but it actually sucks and I think he'll be out of work soon enough. I still can't get over that dump I took. I think I lost a vital organ. 01/18/2005
It's absolutely freezing outside. I recommend boxers briefs with a pair of regualr boxers above them to keep your balls nice and toasty. Everyone loves toasty balls. Watched the Golden Globes...I'd just like to say that Star Jones had a lump of fat coming out of her dress in the armpit area. So very disturbing…I've officially stopped writing Ellen Degeneres e-mails because she refuses to respond. That's it Ellen, no more compliments about your dancing either. 01/20/2005
I wonder wish of the Bush twins gives better head. 01/23/2005
Leno has just totally wrecked that show and no self-respecting comic can stand the guy. Though, as I have joked before, I probably shouldn't write that. The stuff that we have been doing at the Comedy Company lately is the type of stand up that Johnny would've loved, I'm sure. So Dave Letterman, if you find yourself a lil nostalgic, and looking for new comics like how Johnny once found you, I'm only about 3 blocks away. 02/10/2005
In other news, turns out that Hakeem Olajuwon gave money to a Islamic charity than ended up funding Hamas and other terrorist organizations. Hewlett Packard fired their CEO yesterday, further shrinkening the amount of female CEO's at major companies. Does this have anything to do with why my HP printer acts like a bitch whenever I try to print a color document? That was so weak, I apologize to you and your family. 02/14/2005
I then took the money I made and donated it to a Muslim charity which I later found out was just a front for Hamas. Oh wait, that was Hakeeem Olajuwon. 02/16/2005
Ashley Olsen is suing the National Enquirer for 40 million dollars for spreaidn what she calls false lies about her being involved in a drug scandal. I don't know if that's true or not but I banged her last night while she did cocaine off her sister's asscrack...Can someone please explain to me the logic behind Kirstie Alley being the spokeswoman for the new Jenny Craig ads? She's fat. Am I missing something here? Have they just given up altogether? 02/23/2005
Now, I wasn't there so I don't know what was said before the melee, but lemme say that fat people are usually hungry, and contrary to popular belief, not as jolly as they would have you believe. So, if one cuts you in line at a pizza place, just let them do it. Most likely they will die of a heart condition relatively soon, and they need to max out their eating time here on Earth. 03/06/2005
Dan Rather is about to officially sign off from the CBS news desk. In an interview Donald Trump says he would have told Rather "You're fired" a long time ago. Fortunately, for Rather he isn't a contestant on a tired reality show, he's just the host of a made-up news show.
Syrian President Bashar Assad says his country will move it's troops mostly out of Lebannon. Assad who, after the announcement, went to one of his many palaces and made his many female servents fondle him. Sammy Sosa got ejected in his second pre-season game….and watched the game from the clubhouse where some of his many female servants fondled him. 03/23/2005
. Richard Simmons was on the Tony Danza Show this morning. I've never seen one man (Danza) so afraid of a woman (Simmons) before. The feeding tube is still out of Terry Shiavo. Call me crazy but I think that if a person is in a constant vegetative state and is being kept alive artificially by machines and her husband has nothign to gain by her death, except peace of mind, then, well, we should let her die. 04/11/2005
A special shout out to the asian girl up front who wouldn't even let me get a joke out before she told me that she loves oragami and calculus. Maury Povich is on ESPN's Cold Pizza right now. He's wearing so much makeup that he is starting to look like Connie Chung. Doesn't Connie Chung sounds like a type of infectious disease? "Dude, that's a pretty bad cough you got there" "Yea, I've got a bad case of Connie Chung." 04/15/2005
Just saw a commercial for "8 Simple Rules" on ABC. It said there is a secret so shocking that "it will upset even special guest Nicole Ritchie!" (Insert coked-up whore joke here) 04/27/2005
As some of you may know every other day or so I send Ellen Degeneres an e-mail with no specific point. Sometimes I just update her on things I'm doing, sometimes I ask a random question, sometimes I rant about politics. I've been doing this for about a year and have yet to get even one response back. So today it hit me, maybe Ellen isn't even getting my e-mails and they are being filtered out by some assistant or intern. So starting today, whenever I send Ellen an e-mail I'm also going to post a copy of it here in the Daily Dave. Here's what I sent today... Ellen, I'm starting to think by your lack of responses to my emails that someone else is reading your emails. Who is this person? What qualifies them to read things in your name? How do they decide what gets passed onto you? I realize that this person is reading this right now and thus probably won't pass it along, but I just want to say to that person that Ellen would really like to read this email and if you stop her from doing so, you are really stopping freedom of speech, which is the most American thing out there, and Ellen is pro-America, is she not??
Now I suppose we wait and see. The ball is in your court Ellen.. 04/29/2005
Anyways, the point of this continues the string of good interactions I've had with some of the big names of comedy, like Seinfeld, Cosby and now Crystal. I've also had a couple good talks with Gilbert Gottfried, just not sure if he falls into the "big names" category.
Here's my e-mail to Ellen for today... Hey Ellen, Something came up and I was wondering if I could borrow 2000 dollars. Thanks. 05/02/2005
Here's today's email that just sent Ellen Degeneres... Ellen, Do you think that drinking Orange Juice with extra vitamins in it, like Tropicana's Immunity Defense Orange Juice is really worth it? Thanks. 05/04/2005
NBC announced 6 reality shows for this coming summer. They are, in no particular order...
The Biggest Loser - See a fat loser become a slightly less fat loser.
I Want to Be a Hilton - Paris' mother is the host, and I assume she sucks off the contestants.
Here's my e-mail of the day to Ellen...Ellen, I see you had Betty White on the show today. I didn't see it but I was wondering if you asked her if she moved back to St. Olaf or stayed in Miami after the Golden Girls ended. 05/06/2005
Here's my letter to Ellen for today...Ellen, I scored 22 points last night and my team is now 4-0 in our basketball league. That's not a question, just thought you'd like to know.
New York City is expected to have a 3.2 billion dollar surplus this year. Clearly, NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg shouldn't be a politician. He's fixed the budget, crime is down, the city is cleaner, and quality of life is rising. As a comic this really pisses me off. There's nothing funny when things are going well. Damn you Bloomberg! 05/10/2005
We'll start with the Ellen letter of the day... Ellen, I've noticed you're big on making people's dreams come true. Well, last night I had a dream that I was swimming in chocolate and started drowning until Batman arrived and saved me. Can you make that happen for me in real life? 05/13/2005 Ellen letter of the day… Ellen, You showing your prom picture just reminded me of my prom. At mine, I was about to have sex for the first time but then the OJ Simpson car chase happened and it blew the whole thing. Sucks, right?
Macaulay Culkin has testified that Michael Jackson didn't molest him. You know you're a child molester when they have to bring in one kid just to say he DIDN'T get molested. Actually, rumor has it that Michael tried to molest Macaulay on many occasions but Macaulay always had an elaborate series of traps set-up and Michael would get a bowling ball dropped on his head or slip on a bunch of marbles. 05/16/2005
I accidently just flushed a copy of the Koran down the toilet this morning. Keep that quiet or there might be riots in Patterson, New Jersey. 05/19/2005
However, I will do an impression of Yoday having sex..."Going to come, I am!" 06/14/2005
Kirstie Alley claims to have lost 35 pounds on Jenny Craig according to the commercial I just saw. In my opinion she looks fatter than ever, which makes me think they fattened her up about 70 pounds, then had her drop 35 pounds. Michael Jackson is not guilty on all charges. He celebrated the verdict by getting drunk at the Santa Monica pre-school. That's really all I can offer up on MJ at the moment. It's sad that money buys justice in this country, but it is what it is. 07/06/2005
I'm currently pitching a show to NBC where regular people get to hunt down NBC executives and murder them in cold blood. The first person to get Jeff Zucker gets a million bucks. Time Warner cable here in NYC is now Carrying AZN Television, "The Network for Asian Americans". This is a real problem going on in America right now, that everyone thinks they need their own channel. The asain channel, the woman channel, the gay channel, the black channel. What's next, a comedy channel? 07/07/2005
Terror is really an amazing tool. It makes nations choose their destiny instead of avoiding it. When America was attacked, we chose to go on the offensive. When Spain was attacked, they chose to retreat. Now England will have their choice, and we'll see what they do. I have a feeling they'll go on the offensive, but Europe is a strange place, and there are many people who think that if you appease the bad guys that they will stop hating you as much.
A month from now Israel is going to pull out of the Gaza Strip. I can't help but think that the same guys who attacked us on 9/11, and the same guys who hit London today, are the same guys who will be thrilled that Israel is leaving because of an unrelenting campaign of terror. I'm not saying that staying just because they will feel rewarded if you leave is enough to stay, but I am wondering if leaving emboldens them to fight even more. 07/15/2005
Hillary thinks that the simulated sex in Grand Theft Auto is pretty much the beginning of the end of human civilization. Of course, co-moralist Joe Lieberman is joining Hillary on this crusade to save humanity as we know it. Somehow I doubt the two of them have ever played the game, or any other game for that matter, but as politicians they obviously feel qualified to tell us why they think we're all messed up. 07/17/2005
If any of that made sense to you then I highly recommend The Andy Milonakis Show on MTV. I have literally no idea what the show is about, but it is based around an overgrown, mildly-obese, childlike moron who does various nonsensical stunts. As I watched in utter horror my roomate turned to me and said... 07/18/2005 Joy Behar
- Doesn't take shit from Star Jones. Robot Chicken
- I had this idea about 10 years ago, but Seth Green did it first. Good job. Kira Phillips
- That smile makes suicide bombings look sorta cute. 07/21/2005
Caught a few minutes of Tucker Carlson's new MSNBC show last night. I've discussed what a bow-tie wearing dork he is before, but now let me also throw in that even without the bow-tie he is still a big dork. 07/27/2005
I watched a new show on the Discovery Channel last night called, "Dirty Jobs with Mike Rowe". The show follows Mike as he goes from various jobs that nobody would want to other jobs that nobody would want. In just this one episode, he plucked golf balls from alligator infested waters, he was a garbage man and he jacked off a horse. Yes, that's right. People are doing this. For a living. 08/01/2005
The ladies of The View are talking about poor Paris Hilton and Nicole Ritchie, who claim not to like each other, yet will do another season of "Simple Life". Hmm, call me a cynic but maybe they are just making up the whole fued just for the free publicity? C'mon Starr Jones, call it like it is! Say allegedly if you have to! File a leagal brief! Eat a piece of cake! Just do something! 08/06/2005
And back to the funny...This week marks the 60th anniversary of the USA dropping the nuclear bomb on Hiroshima. To commemorate the occasion, Iran announced it will continue it's nuclear program and bomb someone "as soon as humanely possible." 08/10/2005
Terrell Owens left Eagles training camp today. WAAAAA! I only make 12 million dollars a year to play football! WAAAAA! I want more money! WAAAAAA! I want more respect! WAAAAA! 08/12/2005
Speaking of Sportscenter, Mario Lopez, better known as AC Slater, is new doing a new segment on Sportscenter called ESPN Hollywood. He is so smiley its ridiculous. Mario, we all know you want to kill people, from Zach Morris to Stuart Scott. Let it go bud, you don't have to smile the whole time. It's offensive. 08/15/2005
Jimmy Kimmel, who hosted the show, is amazingly unfunnny, and will be cancelled any day now. Sara Silverman has no real talent and will continue to suck Jimmy Kimmel's cock for as long as he has a TV show. Adam Corrola also sucked Jimmy Kimmel's dick to further his career. And it was no easy feat because if his giant teeth. Israel is pulling out of Gaza today. Why is it that Jews can't live in a place that is run by Arabs, but Arabs can live in Israel, France, Britian, America and every other country on the planet? Oh yea, the Arabs are backwards, fundamentalist wacko's. I keep forgetting that. 08/26/2005
My first hour on Craigslist yesterday was accidentely searching for jobs in San Franscisco. Considering I hate commuting to the East Side, San Fran would really be pushing it. Kathy Griffin has a new show on Bravo called, "My Life on the D-List". I'm pretty sure once you have a show you are off the D-List. She's probably C-List now. I'm D-List. Oh, who am I kidding, I'm G-List, but I aspire to be D-List. Man, D-List, that'd be so sweet. Okay, gotta go, I've got a lot of work to do. D-List here we come. 09/06/2005
Anyone else think that Bush had Rehnquist killed to get some of the the heat off him for the slow support time in the Gulf Coast? Timing is everything. 09/17/2005
It was with great joy and happiness that when i woke up this morning that I came across "GI Joe: Sigma 6" on Fox 5. I saw the title of the show as it was on a commercial and I anxiously awaited what I would see. Then it happened once again. Japanimation. 09/26/2005
Shouldn't Intelligence Design really be called Unintelligent Design
That whole Elian Gonzalez fiasco is back in the news because it all went down five years ago. I said it then and I'll say it now, if a little Mexican boy wants to go to Puerto Rico, I say let him go. 10/06/2005
Fortunately, the guy at the bodega downstairs lent my his metro card and I picked up my roomate's keys. In the past I've had my suspicions that the bodega guy works for al-Queda, but on this day he was a good man. 10/08/2005
Iran's stock market dropped 30% yesterday. Can you imagine what it smells like on the trading floor of the Iran Stock Exchange? Nobody there wears deoderant for God's sake. If you want help to turn it around I'd recommend putting all your money in Allah Body Spray. Women will pull down there burka's as low as their nose if they smell it. 10/11/2005
One night a couple years ago Tom was on the Tonight Show to promote "Castaway." It was right before Chistmas and he was talking about all these toys, such as the Carebears and Power Rangers. I was noticing that some of the stuff he was saying was amazingly close to my material at the time, and he was even saying it pretty much how I was saying it. Then he went into this whole thing about the Tranformers, about how they transform from robots into cars. He ended by singing a version of the Transformers theme song in the voice of Frank Sinatra. Dave, why would Tom Hanks steal your material, and how would he even get it in the first place? Good questions. As you probably know, when any actor goes on one of these shows all the questions/answers and jokes are pre-written. It was very clear to me that Tom was just doing material he had been given. So no, I don't think Tom had any idea what was going on. I think he paid some writer for some material and some writer gave him stolen stuff. It's not the first time it has happened, nor the last time it will happen, it just sucks when it happens to you. I'm pretty sure I know who gave him the material, but that I won't say until there is more worth in telling this story. 10/12/2005
Zucker, who has helped wreck TV by rolling out so many reality shows at the expense of real programming deserves that silver bullet. Yea, maybe it isn't wise for me to say that on here, but it isn't the first time and won't be the last time.
Years ago we sent Zucker "The Anti Show", which we filmed in NBC studios (unknown to him), and he never even bothered to respond to us. That was just one opportunity he had to take a chance on something completely oringinal, edgy and ahead of the curve. Instead he green-lit dozens of awful reality shows and a couple stale sitcoms. Karma is a bitch Jeff, but don't worry, it sounds like you'll be put out of your misery soon. 11/04/2005
I'm sure Apple will find a way to capitalize on this whole porn thing, perhaps by coming out with a new iPod designed specifically for the midget porn afficionado. Speaking of midget porn, I have to be somewhere in 15 minutes. Take care. 11/07/2005
Mike Bloomberg for Mayor of NYC. Yea, he's nerdy. Yea, he's rich. But the city is safe, clean and he even rides the subway sometimes. Anyone who can deal with the smell of the 59th and Lexington stop smell is worth voting for. 11/12/2005
with Jennifer Anniston last night. Pretty good flick. The moron couple behind me brought their four year old son who kicked my seat constantly and didn't shut up the entire time. I got this close to derailing his graduation to kindergarten, but calmer heads prevailed. 11/16/2005
Michael Jackson got caught walking into a woman's restroom in Bahrain earlier this week. He claimed that it was a simple mistake because he doesn't speak Arabic. It turns out that he thought the sign said, "Horrifically Misfigured Former Pop Stars Who Like to Lick Children's Heads." 12/20/2005
The transit strike is on, and while I don't want to take sides, let me say that the transit workers and their union representatives can go fuck themselves….. I haven't seen so many angry people stuck in traffic since the day before we bombed Baghdad.
Welcome back to my omnibus compendium of Arizona’s upcoming primary races in the style of my 2018 summaries. The primary is set to take place August 4th – early voting ballots should have been mailed out on or around July 8th.
Arizona’s a really interesting state (I may be a hair biased), since it not only is home to 2-3 swing House seats and a high-profile Senate race, but also tenuous majorities in both state houses that could – theoretically – neuter Ducey’s trifecta this fall. And counties have their races this year as well, so I’ve highlighted some of the fireworks ongoing in Maricopa.
And this is before factoring in the fact that our state is a COVID-19 hotspot, with an unpopular Republican Governor doing almost nothing to stop it.
If you’re interested about which district you live in, check https://azredistricting.org/districtlocato
. If you want to get involved with your local Democratic party, find your legislative district on the previous link (NOT CD), and then search for your LD’s name at this link
. Feel free to attend meetings, they’re a great way to get involved with candidates and like-minded individuals.
If you wish to donate to a “clean elections” candidate (mentioned in the post as “clean”), you will have to live in that candidate’s legislative district to give qualifying $5 contributions (check here if anyone needs it
in your area), but they are allowed to accept a limited amount of “seed money” from people outside of the district. The three CorpComm candidates can take $5’s statewide.
If you do not want to vote at the polls, you will need to request an early ballot using the website of your county’s recorder prior to July 4th. Example links for Maricopa
, and Pinal
. Others available if needed.
Race ratings for listed primaries will be listed as Safe/Likely/Leans/Tilt/Tossup (alternatively Solid instead of Safe if my mind blanks) and are not indicative of my own preference for that seat. I’ll denote my personal primary preferences at the end of this series, as well as the best Republican ticket for the Dems if someone here really really wants to pull a GOP ballot in the primary. I do not advise it, but since I can't stop ya, you'll get my best suggestions.
Write-in candidates have yet to file, which could give us an outside chance at getting some Libertarians on the ballot (the Greens have lost their ballot access).
If you have any questions about voting in the primary, which races are the most contested, and how to get involved with other Democrats in Arizona, feel free to PM me.
All fundraising numbers here are as of 7/18/2020 (“Q2”).
District stats are listed for the race that involved the top Democratic vote-getter in the past two midterm cycles plus the last two presidential races, taken from Daily Kos’s legislative sheet
– Clinton’16, Obama’12, Sinema’18, and Garcia’14 (not his 2018 run
). Part 1: Statewide and Congressional Races Part 2: Maricopa County Races Update 1: Congressional and County Rating Updates Part 3: Legislative Districts 1-10 ALL OPINIONS ARE MY OWN SOLELY IN MY CAPACITY AS A VOTER IN ARIZONA, AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANY ORGANIZATIONS I WORK/ED FOR OR AM/WAS A MEMBER OF. THIS POST IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY THE ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR ANY SUB-ORGANIZATION THEREOF, OR ANY FILED CANDIDATE. Alright, let’s get cracking, y’all. I’m going to try to save time and characters on the safer seats when I can, although of course I’ll expound on any fun stuff that comes up.
Legislative District 11 (McSally+9.93, Trump+13.9, Douglas+16.7, Romney+19.3)
The first district in this writeup installment is LD11, a district very close geographically and politically to LD8. Unlike LD8, however, LD11 has slowly been trending towards Democrats, instead of away from them. Encompassing the southern half of Pinal (including a large chunk of Casa Grande) and bits of Pima, LD11 could swing under the right conditions, but is probably a safe seat this year. That’s disappointing, since the incumbents in the district are pretty darn nasty.
Incumbent Senator Venden “Vince” Leach ($98K COH), a sort-of Great Value Mitch McConnell, loves to spend his time filing SB1487 complaints against various liberal towns in Arizona – basically, suing cities over their attempts to go above and beyond state law when it comes to certain issues. Leach leads the SB1487 leaderboard with 4 SB1487 suits, most recently targeting Pima County over COVID-19 safety regulations that were slightly stricter than state law. Joining the suit were his House counterparts, COVID-19 conspiracy-monger Bret Roberts ($22.4K COH) and actual goddamn Oathkeeper and Charlottesville truther Mark Finchem ($27K COH).
Facing Finchem and Roberts is the Democratic House nominee for LD11, Dr. Felipe Perez ($24.2K COH). Perez has made few waves online and I haven’t seen him even in the same tier of candidates as Girard in LD8, so he’s probably not going to supercharge this district into Dem. territory. But given the spike in public approval for the healthcare industry due to COVID, he may get lucky. On the Senate side, Leach’s opponent will be one of retired public administrator Linda Patterson ($4.7K COH, Clean) and Marine drill instructor Joanna Mendoza ($14.5K COH). Anything could happen between now and August, but Mendoza currently has a significant organizational, political (endorsements) and fiscal advantage over Patterson, and will probably be the nominee come August.
A well-run race could feasibly knock out Finchem or Roberts, but I’ve yet to see that happen. Still, it’s far out enough that I’m not going to slam the door shut on a Perez win just yet.
hunter15991 Rating: GOP primary unopposed, Safe Mendoza, Perez unopposed, Safe Leach, Safe Roberts, Likely Finchem general
Legislative District 12 (McSally+17.19, Trump+24.5, Douglas+17.84, Romney+33.35)
Really not going to focus much on this district to save space, as it’s a snoozefest. House Majority Leader Warren Petersen ($84.8K COH) is running for Senate to replace outgoing Sen. Eddie Farnsworth. Petersen faces Haitian DREAMer. former teacher, and 2018 LD-12 House nominee Lynsey Robinson ($1.4K COH). Robinson’s a great person, but lost her House race against Petersen by the 1v1 equivalent of 20 points, and shows no sign of knocking him off this time around.
Petersen’s runningmates, Rep. Travis Grantham ($39K COH) and Queen Creek Councilman Jake Hoffman ($107.7K COH) are unopposed in both the primary and general.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries all unopposed, Safe Petersen general, GOP House unopposed
Legislative District 13 (McSally+21.59, Trump+26.96, Douglas+26.22, Romney+31.62)
Moving on to another Safe GOP district with not much activity – LD13! Stretching from the whiter Yuma neighborhoods all the way to Phoenix exurbs in Maricopa County (and the mirror image of LD4 to its south), LD13 routinely sends Republican slates to the legislature. This year, incumbents Sen. Sine Kerr ($58.5K COH), Rep. Tim Dunn ($60.4K COH), and Rep. Joanne Osborne ($15K COH) are all fighting to hold their seats.
Kerr is unopposed in both the primary and general, while Dunn and Osborne are in the opposite situation – they’ve got two elections between now and inauguration day. Democratic paralegal Mariana Sandoval ($3.1K COH, Clean) will put up little resistance for the GOP in the general, but the entrance of former Senator and former Speaker Pro Tem Steve Montenegro ($27.8K COH) could really shake up the LD13 House primary. Montenegro, a Salvadoran-American legislator who resigned his Senate seat to run for the CD-8 special election primary (he placed 3rd, ultimately losing to then-Sen. Debbie Lesko), was a rising star in the AZ-GOP before his resignation and contemporaneous sexting scandal. This Senate run could be a good way for him to get his foot back in the door, and since his election would single-handedly double the amount of non-white Republicans in the legislator, I would figure that some Arizona Republicans are excited that Montenegro is throwing his hat back into the ring.
I haven’t seen much about this primary online, but there’s vague general on GOP pages dinging Montenegro for his ties to a 2016 National Popular Vote bill in the legislature, which is a big purity sticking point for the further-right members of the Arizona GOP. That being said, the chatter is vague at best, and Montenegro has enough conservative cred (with endorsements from people like Joe Arpaio and former Rep. Trent Franks back during his special election run) that he will primarily face issues over the sexting scandal.
I’ll give Osborne and Dunn a slight advantage over their incumbency, financial well-being, and the issues in Montenegro’s closet, but this is a really tight race and Montenegro could very well end up back in the legislature this time next year.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. unopposed, Kerr unopposed, Tilt Osborne, Tilt Dunn, All Safe GOP general
Legislative District 14 (McSally+23.83, Trump+26.24, Douglas+22.88, Romney+26.84)
This is yet another district where Democrats stand no real chance in competing this year, and haven’t in quite some time. Situated in SE Arizona, LD14 once incorporated some ancestrally Democratic mining towns in Greenlee and Graham County, but they’ve grown red enough in the past couple of decades that this district is now held by three GOP legislators.
Former House Speaker and current Sen. David Gowan ($60.9K COH) (who was previously in the news for trying to use a state vehicle to assist in a failed Congressional campaign) faces realtor Bob Karp ($12.9K COH, Clean) in the general, while House incumbents Rep. Gail “Tax porn to build the wall” Griffin” ($50.5K COH) and Rep. Becky Nutt ($47.4K COH) face retired union activist Ronnie Maestas-Condos ($686 COH, Clean) and teacher Kim Beach-Moschetti ($13K COH, Clean). All 3 races will probably be easy GOP wins.
hunter15991 Rating: Candidates unopposed in primaries, All Safe GOP general
Legislative District 15 (McSally+8.01, Trump+16.61, Douglas+11.06, Romney+25.44)
LD15, up in Northern Scottsdale and Phoenix, is one of the final frontiers of suburban expansion for Arizona Democrats, along with the Mormon suburbs of the far East Valley (LD12, 16, and 25). A very wealthy area, LD15 has routinely been a GOP stronghold – but their hold on the area has been dissipating steadily rapidly in the Trump era. In 2018, two Dem. House candidates both managed to outperform the “single-shot” performance of a 2016 candidate, and Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko ($48.6K COH, hereafter “KDP”) improved on the district’s 2016 State Senate margin by several points despite facing a significantly more difficult opponent than the 2016 Democrat.
KDP is running again this year, as a single-shot candidate for the State House. Her opponents have yet to be set in stone, as both GOP Representatives are vacating their seats to run for higher office, and there are three GOP candidates in the August primary vying for two nominations. Veteran Steve Kaiser ($13.6K COH) and State House policy adviser Justin Wilmeth ($16K COH, $5.2K self-funded) are the nominal establishment picks for both seats, and have been endorsed by a whole host of GOP legislators. However, they face stiff competition from businessman Jarret Hamstreet ($23.2K COH, $10K self-funded), who boasts endorsements from GOP power-players like the local Chamber of Commerce and the NRA, as well as tacit support from the incumbent Senator in the district Heather Carter ($101.2K COH) (somewhat of an Arizona Lisa Murkowski). I’ve been able to find very little chatter on the race, but with Hamstreet’s significant fundraising advantage I definitely think he secures one of the two nominations this November. While the district is still quite red, KDP is no spring chicken, and facing Kasier, Hamstreet, or Wilmeth will be a lot easier than her run against Carter in 2018.
If I’m going to be honest, it is the GOP Senate primary that is almost as important as the House general election. Heather Carter has gotten on the bad side of quite a few conservative legislators during her tenure in the Senate, holding up GOP budgets with her partner in crime Paul Boyer in 2019 over a stalled child sexual assault statute of limitations bill and this year over an amendment to give additional funding to firefighters for PPE and to students for tuition support.
That amendment failed 15-15 thanks to one Kate Brophy McGee - more on her later.
Carter’s actual attempts at moderation (as opposed to McGee’s performative bullshit) has inspired current State Rep. Nancy Barto ($9.9K COH) to challenge her for the Senate. Barto has the support of both Kaiser and Wilmeth (as well as most of the GOP establishment) but has been routinely lagging behind Carter in fundraising (both in terms of current COH and overall amount raised). Carter has been bringing in more “moderate” and pro-public education GOP volunteers from all over Phoenix and is sure to put up a fight in August. As it stands, I think she narrowly pulls it off. There is no Democratic Senate opponent in the general, so winning the primary automatically wins the seat.
If you’ve got GOP friends in AZ who just can’t bare phonebanking for Democratic candidates but complain about the state of the Republican party, send them her way.
Carter has beliefs. Barto has none.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. unopposed, Tilt Carter, Lean Hamstreet, Tilt Kaiser, GOP Sen. unopposed in general, Likely Hamstreet, 2nd GOP unopposed
- CarteHamstreet: $124.4K
- KDP: $48.6K
- Barto coalition (KaiseWilmeth/Barto): $40.5K
Legislative District 16 (McSally+17.58, Trump+28.37, Douglas+17, Romney+28.11)
LD16, out on the border between Pinal and Maricopa County, is probably the reddest district in Arizona that could still be relatively considered “suburban”. The only Democratic candidate is write-in House candidate Rev. Helen Hunter ($783 COH), and while her background is stellar (incl. past work with the NAACP, Mesa PD’s Use of Force Committee, and other community involvement), there isn’t even a guarantee she’ll make it onto the November ballot.
Meanwhile, Rep. Kelly Townsend ($15.5K COH) has tired of the State House (just like she tired of her furry fursona, and is running unopposed for State Senate.
The real drama, therefore, is in the GOP State House primary to win Townsend’s old seat. Incumbent Rep. John Fillmore ($12.9K COH) is running for another term, and seems set to win one of the two nominations. Townsend’s former seat is contested by respiratory therapist Liza Godzich ($14.6K COH) (who wins the “most moderate” title by default by virtue of taking COVID kinda seriously), CorpComm policy advisor Jacqueline Parker ($16.4K COH), and school choice activist/general lunatic Forest Moriarty ($17.7K COH).
Moriarty has the valuable Townsend endorsement, but has not been able to consolidate support easily elsewhere – Parker’s CorpComm ties let her bring quite a few assets of her own to bear, as well as endorsements from Congressman Andy Biggs and the NRA.
This election will be a test of Townsend’s downballot coattails, as well as those of the school choice movement in AZ parlaying any support they may have into legislative results. Success for Moriarty here could go as far as inspiring Townsend to run for Governor. We’ll see if it comes to that.
hunter15991 Rating: No Dem. filed (pending write-in), Townsend unopposed, Lean Fillmore, Tossup ParkeMoriarty, GOP unopposed in general
Legislative District 17 (Sinema+3.53, Trump+4.09, Douglas+3.12, Romney+14.16)
One of the reasons I significantly delayed writing these writeups was because I was dreading writing about LD17. Not to doxx myself completely, but in 2018 I had far too many negative encounters with the incumbent Democratic Representative, Jennifer Pawlik ($101.3K COH) that made me routinely question my support of her. I’m still trying to heal the wounds in multiple relationships I have with friends that were caused by Pawlik’s actions.
I deeply regret ever lifting a finger to help her when I had opportunities in other districts. But because her actions never got physical, because the stakes are so high this year, and because too much unsubstantiated negative talk about a candidate can get a post deleted - I don’t wish to publicly expound on her actions (nor put words in the mouth of other people who interacted with her). Feel free to PM if interested.
Pawlik as a candidate is a grab-bag. On paper she’d be a strong option for a suburban district – a teacher and education funding activist with a prior win during the 2018 wave. However, behind the scenes she is quite a poor campaigner in ways that directly impact Democratic candidates’ odds and presences in the district, including her own - which makes me more apprehensive of her odds of re-election than her fellow Jennifer in HD18 (Rep. Jennifer Jermaine), who’s quite similar to Pawlik on the whole.
Pawlik’s Senate runningmate this year is local businessman and first-generation American Ajlan “AJ” Kurdoglu ($51.5K COH). AJ’s a good guy and more serious of a campaigner than Pawlik, and is on well enough terms with her that no inter-candidate drama will probably happen this fall (which would be a welcome change for the district). He’s been slightly outpacing her in fundraising and seems to be hitting the ground running.
The Republican incumbents in this district are Sen. JD Mesnard ($102.6K COH), who moonlights as legal counsel for an organization categorized as a hate group by the SPLC, and Jeff Wenninger ($117.8K COH), a backbench Bitcoin bro. Wenninger and Mesnard have both been in their seats for a while, and this cycle were backing Chandler Vice Mayor (and JD Mesnard’s mom) Nora Ellen for the other State House seat – Ellen lost to Pawlik in 2018.
But in a stroke of luck for Pawlik, Ellen failed to qualify for the ballot this year. However, in a similar stroke of luck for the GOP Liz Harris ($27.3K COH, $21.3K self-funded) - a local realtor (like Ellen) - did qualify. I’ve yet to discern just how close she is with Mesnard and Wenninger, and how much cash she is willing to dump into this race, but in terms of how random non-GOP establishment candidates the LD17 Republicans could have done far worse than Harris.
All the pieces in this district would point to a shift even further left than it was in 2018, and had I not known what I know about Pawlik this would be a Tilt D House/Tossup Senate. But I don’t know if she’s changed since 2018 - and if she hasn’t, there is no guarantee that she won’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, Tilt Mesnard, Tossup House (Pawlik/Harris), Safe Wenninger
Legislative District 18 (Sinema+18.58, Clinton+10.39, Garcia+12.5, Romney+1.93)
Like LD10 in the previous part of my writeup, the situation in LD18 is another blast of the proverbial Gjallarhorn for the AZ-GOP’s suburban chances. Once a very competitive district (fully red as recently as 2016), LD18 is now held by 3 Democrats – Sen. Sean Bowie ($106.3K COH), Rep. Jennifer Jermaine ($65.7K COH), and Rep. Mitzi Epstein ($60.8K COH). Bowie and Epstein have carved rather moderate paths in their respective houses having been elected back when this district was more competitive, while Jermaine’s tacked a bit more to the left, and has been a prominent voice for increasing education funding (prior to running for the State House she was a public school funding activist and IIRC Moms Demand Action member) and for missing indigenous women (Jermaine is part indigenous herself).
The GOP’s troubles in this district started around the filing deadline, when one of their candidates, Alyssa Shearer, withdrew from the primary. Super anti-abortion nut Don Hawker ($619 COH) filed as a write-in candidate to replace her, but it’s uncertain if he’ll qualify for the general election. Their other House candidate, Bob Robson ($11K COH) is on paper a solid candidate (being a former Speaker Pro Tem of the state house), but lost by the equivalent of 6% to Epstein in 2016 and by 19% when he ran for Kyrene Justice of the Peace (a district that roughly matches the boundaries of LD18. Robson’s an old warhorse) - going 0 for 2 since 2014. It’s a sign of the times that he and discount Scott Roeder are the two potential House candidates for the GOP in this district.
In the Senate, the GOP doesn’t fare much better. Real estate agent Suzanne Sharer ($4.2K COH) is trying to run a semblance of a decent race against Sen. Bowie, but keeps using her campaign Twitter (@blondeandsmart – I promise you that’s a real handle) to retweet QAnon shit. Sharer is going nowhere in November. That’s if she makes it to November, given her past retweets advocating for people to drink bleach to cure COVID.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, All Safe Dem. general
Legislative District 19 (Sinema+44.97, Clinton+40.25, Garcia+32.38, Obama+34.3)
LD19 is a safe Democratic district in the West Valley, where all the drama is happening in the primary. Rep. Lorenzo Sierra ($9.3K COH) and Rep. Diego Espinoza ($25.2K COH) are both running for re-election, defending their seats against challenger Leezah Sun ($5.1K COH), a local activist. Sierra and Espinoza haven’t been particularly conservative in their voting records in the legislator, but have taken some flack from the more progressive wing of the party lately for outside corporate expenditures in this primary. I’m honestly unsure why these PACs are weighing in given that Sun isn’t running all that good of a campaign, but I guess better spend it here than in tighter primaries. Assistant State Minority Leader Lupe Contreras ($7.2K COH) is unopposed in his primary.
In the general, there’s one GOP candidate for both House and Senate, but both are write-ins and could possibly not qualify for the ballot. For now, Democrats are unopposed in this district in the general.
hunter15991 Contreras uncontested, Safe Sierra, Safe Espinoza, Uncontested Dem. general
Legislative District 20 (Sinema+3.7, Trump+8.01, Douglas+0.04, Romney+12.87)
LD20 is another suburban district where Democrats could see sizable gains this fall. Won by Sinema and Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes, and almost snagged by David Garcia during the 2014 Superintendent race, LD20 has been on the Arizona Democratic Party’s mind for a few cycles now. Their candidates this year are strong – 2018 Senate nominee Doug Ervin ($94.6K COH) has filed for a rematch after losing by 4 in 2018 (where an independent ex-GOP candidate took 7% - Ervin claims Quelland actually hurt him more than district Republicans), and retired teacher Judy Schweibert ($158.2K COH) is running for House. Both are running bang-up campaigns and seem set to make November a problem for local Republicans, and Ervin has eschewed the public funding he took last time in order to be able to fundraise better for the slugfest ahead.
The local GOP, however, isn’t taking this lying down. Representatives Shawnna Bolick ($161.8K COH) - who was almost bumped off the ballot for using a PO Box as her filing address - and Anthony Kern ($73.4K COH) - an ex-cop on the Brady “untrustworthy cop” list - have been building their warchests in preparation for this cycle after narrowly hanging on in 2018 (despite both Democrats in that race running with public funding). While Bolick has typically stayed out of especially heinous controversy on social media (despite once posting that all masks come from Wuhan and are thus contaminated with COVID), Kern’s time on the force seems to have stuck with him, and his Twitter feed is full of a lot of pro-cop posts and whatnot. With Schweibert running as a single-shot candidate this year I can see Kern’s tendency of accidentally discharging his foot into his mouth finally coming back to bite him.
On the Senate side the past election results are slightly more promising than the House, but the opponent is tougher as well. Sen. Paul Boyer ($50.5K COH) is probably the closest there is to a living John McCain in the Arizona Legislature (not to deify him too much – he’s still conservative), having blocked two GOP budgets in the past two years along with Sen. Heather Carter (see LD15). In 2019 this was over a child sexual assault reform bill (extending the statute of limitations), and in 2020 this was over a lack of funding to firefighters and university students in the emergency “skinny” COVID budget the legislature passed in the spring. His attempts at moderation are visible outside of that: Boyer’s abysmal Q2 fundraising – per his own words – came from not fundraising at all during the 5 month long legislative session despite campaign finance rules only banning lobbyist contributions during the session (and I guess that’s commendable self-policing), and on his website he stops just short of calling for abortion to be banned, which makes him Margaret fucking Sanger among the current AZ-GOP.
That’s not to say that people shouldn’t support Ervin with all it takes – hell, if anything he’ll need more help to oust Boyer. Ultimately I think Ervin holds a narrow lead in this race with the absence of Quelland and with far better fundraising than what the LD20 slate had last year, but the election is still quite far away. If I had to pick one Democrat to win in this district, it’d be Schweibert.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, Tilt Ervin, Tilt Schweibert, 2nd House uncontested
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